Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 2.640047 3.614569 5.003980 7.202567 1.073979e+01 1.649082e+01 27.215039
2025-03-30 1.705849 2.683499 4.364552 7.712095 1.493108e+01 3.198805e+01 85.365947
2025-04-06 1.098385 1.905763 3.498530 7.303954 1.790492e+01 5.428157e+01 269.733610
2025-04-13 0.729907 1.363539 2.754492 6.617991 2.017512e+01 8.851408e+01 1043.190865
2025-04-20 0.551430 1.109642 2.478370 6.963367 2.772456e+01 2.078182e+02 17233.680899
2025-04-27 0.446418 0.966078 2.390490 7.963135 4.386619e+01 7.499595e+02 NaN
2025-05-04 0.371297 0.859013 2.344587 9.295735 7.464707e+01 4.940041e+03 NaN
2025-05-11 0.303092 0.738664 2.182232 10.046053 1.165679e+02 7.052785e+04 NaN
2025-05-18 0.239639 0.604167 1.882021 9.621010 1.489427e+02 4.041614e+06 NaN
2025-05-25 0.188912 0.487564 1.576463 8.696617 1.691184e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.161907 0.433653 1.489059 9.330963 2.770645e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.139809 0.386886 1.402346 9.906209 4.641596e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.122450 0.351421 1.354962 11.045216 9.842151e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.107425 0.318340 1.297570 12.108523 2.266311e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.090973 0.274063 1.150022 11.546789 3.486647e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.076604 0.233062 0.995266 10.453602 4.388463e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.068390 0.213072 0.949603 11.164463 1.252961e+04 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.063032 0.202443 0.953956 13.080663 1.050302e+05 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.058635 0.194160 0.968738 15.685170 1.513641e+07 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.053515 0.181014 0.940477 17.228544 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.047462 0.161897 0.854887 16.476373 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-17 0.041679 0.142463 0.755287 14.742455 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-24 0.038540 0.134061 0.735364 16.022130 NaN NaN NaN